NHL Draft Lottery: Aftermath

So, Tampa wins the lottery and has first dibs at a conspicuously not-that-fired-up-about-south-Florida Stamkos.

The Bolts' tank over the last stretch of the season and the Kings' meaningless points accumulated largely thanks to the suddenly prolific Brian Willsie flipped the expected draft order.

This is not a very elegant system, and probably why GMs send someone their fan bases like to the lottery show instead of showing up themselves. It'd just be a little too weird to watch a GM coming off being the architect of the worst team in the league celebrate winning the consolation prize. The GMs whose squads have been out of contention for three months shouldn't even get a year's supply of Cup o' Noodles, let alone a slot in the Showcase Showdown.

NHL Draft Lottery

The goal of injecting parity into professional sports leagues that use drafts is fundamentally at odds with competitive integrity in the current season. Lotteries have been implemented to prevent a bottom-dweller from "tanking" to secure a #1 pick when their hopes of a playoff berth are minimal, but by the NHL trade deadline, the buyers and sellers are generally well-characterized, and there is great anticipation ahead of the flurry of moves that sends aging-but-still-competent veterans on floundering squads back into the playoff mix for what could be their last run. The sellers accumulate draft picks and minor league prospects as vital assets in the future ascent from the depths of their respective conferences; the buyers part with those bargaining chips in order to put themselves over the top and win the Cup.

The new NHL CBA's algorithm for determining draft position in spots 15-30 is brilliant, taking into account eventual playoff finish--i.e., the Stanley Cup finalists, regardless of regular season record, are picking 29th and 30th in the upcoming first round. Parity ensues, as the rich cannot get much richer with only a late-rounder in hand, that is, if they hadn't already shipped that first-rounder to a seller for that gritty third line winger or that stay-at-home D-man.

The lottery, giving the team with the worst point total top odds at securing the top pick (~48.2%), inherently encourages the seller/buyer split as sellers know that they are in a no-lose situation: they pick up picks, they skate prospects to get them vital experience, and they don't expect to make the playoffs anyway so there's no organizational need to accumulate points. However, this market structure puts general managers and their current coaches and players inherently at odds: coaches and players, who are likely auditioning for jobs, are going to go to the rink each day to win and climb out of the cellar, while each extra point or pair of points post-deadline makes a GM wince as the expected value of his draft assets declines with no immediate upside of a possible playoff slot.

The teams that find themselves in the black hole of not making the playoffs but not having a top-10 pick are the big losers, despite likely displaying the most honorable behavior in the spirit of competition. These borderline playoff teams may have acted as buyers before the deadline; they may have been unwilling to send away their unrestricted-free-agent-to-be leaders as potential rentals; their top guys may have no-trade clauses; their seasons might be a disappointment due to injuries rather than poor assembly. Whatever the situation, the coaches and players go to the rink each day skating to win, and the GM in the black hole has endorsed that stance by not weakening the current roster in favor of futures.

The Hockey News recently pasted a "Hey, L.A. STAY BAD!" headline on the cover of an issue describing this year's top prospects. This mentality makes for great column inches and blog fodder but is contrary to all that is good about this beautiful sport. Go for the playoffs and fail? Black hole. Decide early that you're out of the running and dump your assets? Enjoy the reward of a lottery pick.

Here's an easy way to flip this disconnect on its derrière: Give all the non-playoff teams a chance at #1, but give the one with the BEST record top probability of having the lucky combination. Immediately, "tanking" is obsolete in perception and practice. By using the trade deadline to strengthen your squad (or just stand pat), you're setting yourself up to either earn a playoff berth or earn your way into a higher chance of drafting first. Never again would we see LA and TB going into the last day with the majority of both teams' fan bases secretly hoping for a hard-fought 7-5 regulation loss--good enough to be entertaining, but not jeopardizing that lottery position. To maintain the draft's contribution to parity, later rounds can go by points total as usual.

The fallout from such a switch would be a strategic shift in how GMs value picks as trade bait. First-rounders would likely become more difficult to pry out of buyers on the playoff bubble, who would at least have a high chance at a first pick if their drive for the post-season were to fall just short. Division leaders (anywhere but the Southeast, sorry 'Canes) confident that they'll be skating in mid-April would still be willing to part with a 1st for the missing link, but potential sellers would have to very carefully weigh the value of that extra low pick against potentially lowering the expected value of their own 1st-rounder by weakening the current squad.

Would a selling team's GM wants to be in a position of finishing last and then picking 14th and 15th in the 1st round because he sold his captain to a team that squeaked into the playoffs on the last day only to lose in the first round, when simply making no moves at the deadline would have been more likely to yield a top-5 pick if the team had remained in a playoff drive? To answer this question, would a GM ever trade a top-5 pick for two picks in the teens? The only situation where you'd likely get a yes is if that GM had just won a Cup and the upcoming draft were a weak one--and then you're asking, however did that GM find himself with a top-5 pick anyway?

If you're in LA or Tampa right now, this plan sounds horrible, as you've just suffered through a rough season and would be looking at having no shot at a Stamkos or Doughty--unless of course you had acquired some other team's pick through some other transaction and at least had assets with which you could try to move up (good work DL!).

Read any losing team's fan board and you'll be subjected to the same debate ad nauseum: Tank! Our season's over anyway! vs. Win! Our guys have to learn to win! Every instance of this debate is boring. But not quite as boring as the deluge of speculations, rumors, and proposals leading up to the trade deadline. Sure, the hockey blogosphere would crumble if the system were set up so that EVERY team was a buyer at the deadline and there was very little chance of meaningful moves being made since a GM would be loathe to weaken his current squad (unless of course he has already mortgaged his future by sacrificing draft picks to the defending champion through idiotic, market-busting offer sheets).

I, for one, never want to hear a February interview in which a player is asked about trade rumors and whether he'll waive his NTC and whether he thinks his squad has a chance at the playoffs and whether he believes he's in the team's future plans. These interviews are a disgrace. Yes, hearing your name in trade rumors is a distraction. Yes, you are loyal to your organization and want to get out there and skate with your current teammates and make a push for the playoffs with those guys. Yes, you signed here to make a run for the Cup, not be an asset that a GM could trade away for a pick at the deadline. Stop insulting our star veteran players with these questions. They're out there to get a job done. It's time the league rewarded that behavior, and aligned coaches and their GMs explicitly by setting the system up to reward the teams that maintain their competitive drive through 82 games rather than 64.

What's the best story going into this playoff season? Washington. Had they come up a point short of Carolina, despite being far and away the most entertaining team of the last six weeks, they'd be looking at a pick in the low teens. Meanwhile, warm winter denizens TB and LA are looking at accessing the cream of the '08 draft crop AND already have all of their tee times reserved for May-August. With the lottery probability order flipped, the battles in the bottom tier of the league would be just as intense as those among playoff locks jockeying for position and home-ice advantage.

Discuss!